Martin Distelkamp, Dieter Elixmann, Christian Lutz, Bernd Meyer, Ulrike Schimmel
Beschäftigungswirkungen der Liberalisierung im Telekommunikationssektor in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland
Nr. 202 / März 2000
Summary
The German market for telecommunications services (telcomms market) has been liberalized gradually in the first half of the 1990‘s in fringe areas. By breaking up the infrastructure monopoly in the year 1996 and the monopoly for voice telephony of Deutsche Telekom AG (DTAG) on January 1st, 1998, the German telecomms market is entirely opened up to competition. The focus of the present study is to estimate the employment effects for the German economy resulting from both steps of liberalization mentioned above. The relevant time period of the analysis ranges to the year 2005 inclusively.
This empirical study rests on the one hand on an identification and quantification of primary impacts of the liberalization. On the other a sectoral disaggregated macro-econometric forecasting and simulation model for the German economy is used to calculate the effects on the labour market. The analysis has been carried out by WIK in cooperation with the Gesellschaft für wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GwS) in Osnabrück who has developed such a model.
The study takes account of the following primary impacts of the liberalization in the telecomms market: 1. reduction of prices of telecommunications services, 2. change of the investment policies of the DTAG as well as investments of new entrants, 3. changes in the consumption behaviour of private households concerning telecommunications services and equipment (e.g. broadband access), 4. changes in prices of banking services due to an increasing use of online-banking as well as changes in firms outside the telecommuncations sector with respect to 5. investments in plant and equipment to improve upon the use of new telecommunications services and 6. the purchase of new inputs due to product innovations in the telecommunications sector.
From a macroeconomic perspective the results of our study document that the liberalization of the telecommunications market unambigiously affects the German labour market in a positive way. In comparison with a "world without liberalization of the telecomms market", we expect 150.000 additional employees at the end of the observation period of the study. Especially the price competition and the increasing private demand for innovative telecommunications products and services contribute to these employment effects. In contrast, the impact of the other primary impacts of liberalization on the German labour market can be neglected in a long-term view. In a short- and medium perspective also investments lead to positive employment effects. In the telecommunications sector itself, however, the labour market is in the long run rather negatively affected by the liberalization. In the year 2005 the balance of employment is equal to about -12.000 employees.
Only German language version available.