Germany lags several years behind Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden in terms of digitalization. As a result, postal services are still used more extensively in Germany, and mail volumes have so far declined more slowly.
This discussion paper discusses two scenarios for the future development of demand in the German letter and parcel market. The first, "slow" scenario is characterized by weak economic growth, trade conflicts, and a slow pace of digitalization, coupled with weak growth in e-commerce. The "fast" scenario assumes stronger economic growth driven by technological innovations, largely free from trade barriers, alongside a rapid pace of digitalization in Germany.
The discussion paper explores the impact of demand drivers on the development of letter and parcel volumes in Germany under both scenarios. It subsequently examines the potential implications for the scope of services and price levels in the universal postal service, with a focus on letter services.
The discussion paper is based on extensive desk research, numerous interviews with industry representatives, and a workshop involving postal service providers and major senders to assess the significance of various drivers for the future demand for letters.
